Post

#HormuzStrikeRiskOff: Week 15. 50% Odds It Reopens By June 30. Markets Still Can't Price It. The Strait of Hormuz has been a de facto closed corridor for commercial shipping since February 28. That's 100 days of the world's most critical maritime chokepoint running at single-digit daily transits. And markets are still trying to figure out what it's actually worth. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid put it plainly last month: "As long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife-edge." Polymarket currently prices a 50% chance of full reopening by June 30. That coin-flip probability is the single most important number in global macro right now — because the two sides of that coin lead to very different worlds. The supply picture is stark. The strait carries roughly 20% of global daily crude consumption. War risk insurance premiums are running four to five times pre-conflict levels. Brent has been above $100 for weeks. Capital Economics estimates a sustained $100 oil price adds 0.6-0.7 percentage points to global inflation — and that's on top of five consecutive years of above-target US inflation. The Dallas Fed modelled a full closure at $100 WTI pushing annualized US headline inflation 1.3 percentage points above baseline. Risk-off assets have responded in textbook fashion. Gold extended gains. Swiss franc and yen firmed. Equities shifted defensive. Bitcoin, which started 2026 as a macro hedge, has increasingly tracked risk-on sentiment — falling with tech stocks and recovering on ceasefire signals, not behaving like digital gold at all. The FOMC meets June 16-17. SpaceX prices Thursday. The CLARITY Act needs a Senate floor vote before July 4. Every major catalyst in the next three weeks sits downstream of one question: does the Strait of Hormuz reopen? 50% says yes. 50% says no. The globe is trading accordingly. #HormuzStrikeRiskOff