Aspirin.

I have a PhD in engineering, not only as a trader, but also as a data scientist. In this market full of noise and emotion, I only believe in mathematics, logarithmic regression bands, and historical period data. My trading philosophy is simple: survive the long game. Engineering PhD | Data Scientist Trading signals, not emotions. Guided by mathematical modeling, Logarithmic Regression Bands, and historical cycles. Execution: Objective. Rational. Long-cycle focused.

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"Where is Bitcoin's 'Golden Pocket'? On the Asymmetric Quantile Model and Positioning of Cycle Bottoms" June 1, 2026 Q3 · Issue 51 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective I've recently spent quite some time researching a question: Why are Bitcoin's tops getting lower while the bottoms are getting higher? It sounds like nonsense, but when you put it into a mathematical framework, you find some very interesting things. 1. All models are wrong, but some are useful Over the past decade, a bunch of pricing models have emerged in the Bitcoin space. The earliest Rainbow Chart used the same curve to fit both tops and bottoms, but the problem was obvious—the cycle tops were getting lower within the regression band, and the bottoms were drifting upward. The Stock-to-Flow model was wildly popular in 2019, but the last two cycles never reached the highs it predicted. The power-law model performs best on bottom structures and remains one of the most reliable tools to judge "where Bitcoin is cheap". But all these models share a common blind spot: they describe tops and bottoms with the same curvature, while in reality—the way tops and bottoms curve is completely different. The bottom support line slope is relatively stable, which the power-law can handle. But the tops are accelerating convergence—the crazy surge in 2013, the frenzy in 2017, the excitement in 2021, and the cool peak in 2025, the upper space is shrinking each cycle. Bottoms are rising, tops are pressing down, and the two lines are slowly converging. 2. Current price is at the 9th historical percentile Using an asymmetric quantile model to look at the current position: Bitcoin is currently around the 9.4th percentile, meaning historically less than 10% of the time has Bitcoin's price been lower than it is now. Some key anchor points: the 1st percentile currently corresponds to about $62,000. If Bitcoin falls to the same percentile it hit at the end of 2022, today's equivalent price would be about $57,000 to $58,000. If panic levels like March 2020 replay, it corresponds to about $51,000. In an extreme case like the "recession panic + double bottom" in 2015, it corresponds to about $48,000 to $49,000. These are not price predictions but historical percentile projections on the timeline. And the area below the 1st percentile—that's what I call the "Golden Pocket." Every time Bitcoin hits this area, it has retrospectively been an excellent buying window. But it doesn't happen often; the last time was at the end of 2022, and before that, March 2020. 3. Why was there no altcoin season last cycle? Historically, Bitcoin capital rotates continuously into altcoins after Bitcoin breaks above the 95th percentile—that is, after entering the frenzy zone. But in 2025, Bitcoin topped near the 75th percentile, almost the same as the mid-cycle top in 2019. Both topped two months before quantitative tightening ended, and neither saw capital rotation. No frenzy, no spillover. No spillover, no altcoin season. This is not a coincidence; it's determined by monetary policy. 4. So, when will the Golden Pocket appear? No one knows the exact time except scammers. But the second half of midterm election years—especially Q4—has historically been a window when Bitcoin hits extreme low percentiles. If prices fall below the 1st percentile in the second half of this year, don't panic. That might be the Golden Pocket you've been waiting for. What price do you think the Golden Pocket will appear at in this cycle? #BTC #Bitcoin #FourYearCycle #PowerLaw #QuantileModel #GoldenPocket #RiskManagement

"$73,000 and an Old Map: The Weakness Window of the Midterm Election Year Opens Again!" May 29, 2026 Q2 · Issue 50 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Two weeks ago, Bitcoin was still at 83,000. Today, 73,000. The speed at which $10,000 evaporated is so fast it’s hard to react, but if you’ve been holding onto that "Midterm Election Year Roadmap," none of this is surprising — Bitcoin was precisely rejected at the 200-day moving average and then started to fall. Exactly like in 2018, exactly like in 2022. Sometimes I feel the cruelest part of this market isn’t how much it falls, but that it always tricks you the same way. First, it gives you a nice rebound, making you think the worst days are over, then just as you let your guard down, it pulls the floor out from under you. 1. An Old Map Repeatedly Verified There’s an uncomfortable pattern in Bitcoin’s lows during midterm election years: at the end of the year following a halving, the first drop; February, the second low; early April, the third low; then June. 2014: low in February, lower in April, then a sharp drop after a June rally. 2018: low in February, higher low in April, June swept previous lows. 2022: low at the end of January, low in May, then a significant break in June. The current 2026 rhythm: low in February, a higher low at the end of March (just two days earlier than April), then a rally to the 200-day moving average in early May followed by rejection. Perfectly fitting this old map. The only difference is the volatility is smaller. 2018 had a crazy bull market top, so the subsequent drop was more volatile. This cycle topped off in a subdued manner, so the decline is quieter and gloomier — like chronic blood loss rather than a clean cut. 2. June: Don’t Sell at the Height of Panic The next few weeks will likely remain weak. Two things to watch in mid to late June: the first meeting of the new Fed Chair, Waller, and more importantly — a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan. After the BOJ’s rate hike in August 2024, Bitcoin bottomed and rebounded about a week later. If June repeats this script, the price may first dip near or below the 200-week moving average, then rally in July. What happened after the June 2018 low? A July rebound. Then? The market consolidated around $6,000 for four to five months with no major moves until the last drop in Q4 reset the entire cycle and the bull market truly began. So here’s a counterintuitive strategy: if Bitcoin crashes sharply in late June, that’s precisely not the time to panic — the July rebound will likely make you regret selling. 3. Pretend Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist in the First Half of the Year To be honest: in every midterm election year’s first half, Bitcoin fell. It fell in the first half of 2014, 2018, 2022, and it will fall in the first half of 2026. Every "bottom fishing opportunity" in the first half turned out to be a false signal in hindsight. The real opportunity is in the second half, especially Q4. You don’t need to catch the absolute bottom to make money; you just need to act in the right half of the year. Now is the time to wait, not to act. If a sharp drop really happens in June, will you panic sell or start paying attention? #BTC #Bitcoin #MidtermElection #200DayMovingAverage #BankOfJapan #FourYearCycle #RiskManagement

"Resistance band says 'No' again, the air for the bear market rebound is being sucked out" May 28, 2026 Q2 · Issue 49 Aspirin · Cyclical analysis from a data scientist's perspective 1. Bitcoin has fallen back below the bear market resistance band again. Saying "again" because we've seen this script too many times. We saw it in 2018, 2022, and 2014. Each time follows the same pattern: the price surges to the 21-week EMA, touches near the 200-day moving average, bulls start celebrating, then—suddenly the air is sucked out, and the price quietly slides back to the starting point. The only difference this time is that the follow-through momentum is even weaker. When the 2023 bull market was confirmed, Bitcoin had strong follow-up buying after breaking through the bull market support band, and the price quickly pulled away. This time? It just poked its head out and pulled back. This "breakout with zero follow-through" pattern is a classic feature of midterm election year false breakouts. 2. Why is the stock market rising while Bitcoin is falling? Many are confused: the S&P 500 is hitting new highs, so why is Bitcoin still falling? The answer is actually simple—Bitcoin is positioned further out on the risk curve than stocks. The stock market can rise because AI companies have solid profit expectations supporting them, but Bitcoin has no earnings reports; it relies more on liquidity and monetary policy. Meanwhile, the market has shifted from pricing in rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes. This shift impacts stocks indirectly but hits Bitcoin directly. In other words, although the stock market and Bitcoin appear on the same screen, they are listening to different music. 3. Time is more important than price There is a seriously underestimated fact: if you look at Bitcoin’s performance against gold, this downturn actually started in December 2024—it's been going on for a year and a half. But because the USD-denominated price once hit new highs, most people didn’t realize Bitcoin’s relative purchasing power had already been shrinking. This leads to a deeper insight: the essence of a bear market is not the price falling to a certain number, but surrender over time. People don’t give up because they see a certain price level; they give up because they’ve waited long enough and lost enough. Every bottom in the four-year cycle is not hammered out by price—it’s worn down by time. Historically, the simplest strategy for midterm election years is just one sentence: buy at the end of the year, sell at mid-to-late two years later. No need for reversion bands, on-chain data, or Stock-to-Flow models. This single rule has outperformed all fancy indicators. 4. What to watch next? June remains a critical weak window. Structurally, the current trend is closer to 2018—also Trump’s administration, a midterm election year, with the stock market deeply correcting in the first half and then rebounding. The 2018 script was: June sweeps past previous lows, rebounds in July and August, then finally bottoms in September and October. The 200-week moving average will likely play a role in this process. In the last cycle, Bitcoin even fell below the 200-week MA, so don’t treat it as an iron bottom—but once the price enters that area, it’s at least time to seriously consider building a position. It’s not time to turn bullish yet. But by Q4, my tone will likely change. Market tides always turn when everyone has given up. Where do you plan to start rebuilding your position? #BTC #Bitcoin #BearMarketResistanceBand #FourYearCycle #200WeekMA #MidtermElection #RiskManagement

"The Four-Year Cycle Is Not Dead, Data Is Defending It" May 26, 2026 Q2 · Issue 48 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective 1. All "This Time Is Different" Narratives Have Failed Over the past year, the market has been flooded with claims that the four-year cycle is dead: ETFs have changed the game, publicly listed companies are hoarding coins, and strategic Bitcoin reserves are about to be implemented. The common feature of these narratives is that they all try to cover up the data with stories. And the result? Bitcoin still peaked in Q4 2025, then entered a bear market—exactly the same as Q4 2013, Q4 2017, and Q4 2021. The most frequently cited counterargument is that this round of Bitcoin peaked in apathy rather than frenzy. But peaking in apathy does not mean a bear market won’t happen. The S&P 500 peaked multiple times in apathy in the late 1960s—between 1965 and 1973, the index rose only 28%, but experienced two bear markets with declines over 30%. Peaking in apathy only indicates a lack of market imagination, not immunity to decline. 2. Precise Reproduction of the Timeline If you overlay the 2015 low to 2017 high price movement onto the previous cycle using a bar chart overlay method, you’ll find the tops of the two bull markets almost perfectly align in time! The error is no more than one week. This cycle’s Bitcoin peaked on day 1162, while the previous two cycles peaked on days 1059 and 1168 respectively. What does this mean? Despite different narratives each cycle, Bitcoin’s behavior in the time dimension is highly consistent. The core of the four-year cycle has never been to predict how high the price will go, but to predict when the price will bottom, and history shows the bottom most likely appears in the fourth quarter of the midterm election year. 3. The "Perceptual Deception" of Bear Market Rallies The current rally has lasted about 16 weeks, and many believe this exceeds the normal range for a bear market rally. But the data does not support this conclusion: the rally from June to November 2022 lasted 21 weeks, the rally from February to June 2018 lasted 19 weeks, and the interval from April to October 2014 was 25 weeks. Sixteen weeks is not abnormal; it is actually on the shorter side. More importantly, this rally’s amplitude is about 35% to 36%, while the 2022 bear market rally reached 46%. The current rally is actually the weakest among all midterm election year rallies. Every bear market rally makes those involved feel "this time is different," but looking back, the pattern has never changed. Summary of Operations Four-Year Cycle: Bitcoin peaked on day 1162, with an error of less than one week compared to historical cycles. All "this time is different" narratives have been refuted by the market itself. Time Window: A local low may appear in June, and the cycle bottom may appear around October. If the S&P 500 corrects in the second half of the year, it will become a catalyst for Bitcoin’s final bottom. Rally Characterization: The 16-week rally duration and 35% rally amplitude are completely within the normal range for bear market rallies, even on the weaker side. The four-year cycle will eventually be broken— but those who bet on it being broken "this time" have lost in every past cycle. Do you think the four-year cycle will be broken this time?

"June Countdown: Three Timelines Are Converging" May 25, 2026 Q2 · Issue 47 Aspirin · Cyclical Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective 1. Weakness Window in Midterm Election Years Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000. If you review the monthly performance during midterm election years, a clear pattern emerges: weakness in February, early April, and June. This was consistent in 2014, 2018, and 2022 without exception. This year's rhythm perfectly matches: a drop in February, a higher low in early April (similar to 2018), and weakness again after a rebound in May. The sell-off over the past two weeks has significantly increased the probability of a low forming in June. This is not speculation; the statistical distribution is speaking. 2. Rejection at the Naked Market Resistance Zone Again Bitcoin was just rejected by the naked market resistance zone and fell back below it. This "breakout followed by immediate pullback" pattern has appeared in every midterm election year: multiple false breakouts followed by sell-offs in 2018, a brief breakout then sharp drop in 2022, and although in 2014 Bitcoin stayed above the resistance zone longer, it eventually fell back. More notably, Bitcoin’s valuation relative to the S&P 500 was also rejected at the 20-week/21-week EMA. This means Bitcoin is under pressure not only in absolute price but also in relative performance, continuing to underperform the stock market. The reason is simple: the S&P 500 is supported by earnings expectations from AI companies, while cryptocurrencies rely more on monetary policy and liquidity, both of which are deteriorating. 3. Week 16: The Time Anchor in Late June Cycle measurements from low to low show: in 2018, lows were about 20 to 21 weeks apart; in 2014, about 25 weeks. We are currently in week 16. The 20-week window falls right in late June, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve meeting (June 17) and the Bank of Japan’s next rate decision. Historically, about a week after the Bank of Japan raises rates is often a short-term bottom for Bitcoin. August 2024 followed this script: BOJ rate hike → Bitcoin sharp drop → bottom and rebound. If this scenario repeats in June, the rebound window after sweeping the $60,000 low could be from late June to early July. Summary of Actions Weakness Window: June is the core weak month in midterm election years; the recent two weeks of sell-off have paved the way for a June low. Resistance Zone: Bitcoin has been rejected both in absolute price and relative valuation. The AI-driven stock market rally will not spill over into crypto—the driving logics are completely different. Time Anchor: Week 16 to Week 20 = late June, coinciding with the dual meetings of the Fed and BOJ. The probability of sweeping the $60,000 low is rising. June is not doomsday—it could be the starting point for a rebound in the second half of the year. But before that, patience is more important than faith. Do you think BTC will sweep $60,000 in June? Or will this timeline be broken this time?

"Triple Headwinds Converging: Bill Stalled, Inflation Rebound, Midterm Cycle Pressure" May 23, 2026 Q2 · Issue 46 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective 1. Clear Bill: The Time Window Is Closing The U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the draft of the Clear Bill with a 15-9 vote, but this is far from the bill becoming law. The biggest obstacle is the ethics clause: if the final text does not include restrictions on politicians profiting directly from the crypto industry, Democratic senators are almost impossible to vote in favor. On the other hand, the White House has hinted that if such clauses are included, the president might refuse to sign. Time is the real enemy. The August recess is imminent, and after the recess, everything will revolve around the midterm elections, with the Senate's composition likely to change dramatically. Prediction markets give the passing probability between 68% and 70%, but if the bill ultimately fails, it could directly trigger a market pullback because too much capital is holding positions based on "regulatory tailwinds." 2. Inflation Rebound: Oil Is the Underlying Variable for All Problems The impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis is shifting from news headlines to a tangible pain in the real economy. U.S. gasoline prices have surpassed $5, strategic petroleum reserves are continuously being drawn down, and the strait's traffic remains severely restricted. Oil underpins all transportation costs: without resolving oil prices, inflation cannot truly fall. New Federal Reserve Chair Wash faces a dilemma: he does not want to repeat his predecessor's mistake of "inflation is temporary," but the president only wants rate cuts. If real-time data confirms inflation is accelerating, rate hikes may become the only option! This would be bad news for all risk assets. 3. Midterm Election Year: The Historical Rule of Cash Is King An underestimated macro background: 2026 is a midterm election year. Historical data shows that in midterm election years, cash usually outperforms cryptocurrencies, at least until the fourth quarter arrives. Gold has already outperformed Bitcoin this year, and central banks worldwide continue to buy heavily. If gold continues to rise in the second half while Bitcoin remains under pressure, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could return to 2022 levels. Energy stocks also deserve attention; they typically peak 6 to 12 months after the stock market tops out. As long as the S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs, energy demand will not fade. The truly profitable Bitcoin miners are precisely those companies that have already shifted to AI computing power businesses. Summary of Actions: Clear Bill: Passing probability is decent but time is extremely tight. Bill failure will directly impact market confidence and is the biggest near-term event risk. Inflation and Interest Rates: Oil is the underlying variable; the Hormuz crisis has not fully transmitted yet. Wash will not underestimate inflation: the probability of rate hikes is rising. Midterm Cycle: Historically, cash outperforms crypto in midterm election years, and gold outperforms Bitcoin. Taking profits is not panic, it is discipline. While everyone is waiting for the "next positive catalyst," three headwinds are quietly converging. The market never waits for you to be ready. If the Clear Bill fails, what is your contingency plan? #BTC #Bitcoin #ClearBill #Inflation #RateHike #MidtermElection #Gold #RiskManagement

"The Harsh Reality of Ethereum: The Bear Market Resistance Zone Takes Effect Again" May 21, 2026 Q2 · Issue 45 1. Rejection at the Bear Market Resistance Zone Ethereum has just been rejected again at the bear market resistance zone. This resistance zone plays the same role in the bear market as BTC's 200-day moving average — a ceiling. Every rebound that touches this area is ruthlessly pushed back. What is even more thought-provoking is a harsh fact: those who have held ETH for the past five years have seen almost zero returns. In many cases, holding cash has yielded better returns than holding Ethereum. This is not alarmist — ETH's logarithmic regression model shows that its "fair value" only just surpasses $2,000 by 2026. An asset taking five years for its fair value to return to this level indicates the market prices it far more conservatively than bulls imagine. 2. Continued Bleeding of the ETH/BTC Ratio The ETH to BTC ratio remains in a downward channel. Why? Two core reasons: First, a reversal in monetary policy expectations. The market's early-year pricing of rate cuts has been completely erased, replaced by concerns over rate hikes. Middle East geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices and energy costs, inflation is rising again, and the market focus has shifted from "recession fears" to "accelerating inflation." When expectations for monetary tightening rise, assets at the risk curve's upper end (like ETH) bleed first to lower-risk assets (like BTC). Second, the potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Historically, several large-scale ETH liquidations occurred around the Bank of Japan's rate hikes. In June, the Bank of Japan may hike rates again. If history repeats, this could trigger another round of significant ETH liquidations. 3. 2019 Analogy and the June Window Ethereum's current trend is highly similar to 2019. That year, ETH consolidated within the regression band for a long time until it truly broke out near the end of the election year. Mapping this cycle corresponds to 2028 in the current round. In the previous cycle, ETH bottomed in June, and BTC bottomed in November. If a similar rhythm repeats, ETH may fall back to near the April 2025 low in June — which coincides with the lower edge of the regression band. The key judgment is: if no recession occurs, the lower edge of the regression band may be the bottom; if a recession arrives, all bets are off. Summary of Actions Bear Market Resistance Zone: ETH's rejection pattern is completely consistent with the previous bear market. Rebounds do not change the trend; the resistance zone remains the ceiling. ETH/BTC Ratio: With monetary tightening expectations plus the potential Bank of Japan rate hike, ETH's bleeding against BTC will likely continue under dual pressure. Time Window: ETH bottomed in June in the last cycle. The current lower edge of the regression band coincides with the April 2025 low, making June a potential key turning point for ETH — provided no recession occurs. While everyone is discussing when ETH will reverse, the logarithmic regression model quietly tells you: fair value has never sided with the bulls. Do you think ETH will bottom in June? Or will it take longer? Share your thoughts in the comments. #ETH #Ethereum #BearMarketResistanceZone #BankOfJapan #MonetaryPolicy #RegressionBand #RiskManagement