The market hasn't been good recently, so I calmed down and reread Teacher Li Xiaolai's book "Treat Time as a Friend," and I feel it fits virtual investing perfectly. The book says time can't be managed; the only thing you can truly control is yourself. Thinking about it, it's true—staying up late watching the market, wanting to jump in as soon as it rises, panicking and cutting losses when it falls. On the surface, it seems like there's not enough time, but actually, it's all about not being able to control your own actions. There's also the phrase "there's no shortcut; everything depends on accumulation," which is so fitting for investing—you always want to go all in and double up, but you often end up getting repeatedly harvested. The ones who really make money are those who control their impulses, have patience, and slowly roll the snowball. Reading the whole book, it's less about time management and more like a lesson in mindset. If you also chase highs and lows in virtual trading and lose more the more you trade, I recommend flipping through this book; it might be more effective than looking at a hundred K-line analyses.

"Nonfarm Payrolls Ignite Rate Hike Expectations, Wash Takes Command for October" The May nonfarm payroll report is like a deep-water bomb: expected 85,000, actual 172,000, plus a cumulative upward revision of 93,000 for the previous two months, with the average employment growth over the past three months hitting a new high in more than two years. The data triggered a chain reaction: spot gold plunged more than 3% in a single day, falling below $4320, nearly erasing all gains for the year. CME data shows the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, with the probability of a December hike jumping to about 63%. On Air Force One, Trump told reporters he hopes to see a rate cut but clearly stated that the decision to cut rates at the October meeting will be completely handed over to the new Fed Chair, Wash. The real weight of this statement lies in pushing Wash to the center of decision-making and precisely locking the market’s rate cut expectations to four months later. However, Wash, known for his hawkish stance, has clearly stated that restoring the Fed’s credibility damaged by high inflation is his top priority, with rate hikes and balance sheet reduction taking precedence over rate cuts. This "suspense" from the White House is no longer just the story itself but a new anchor point for market games. If employment data continues to exceed expectations, rate hikes rather than cuts will be the main theme, and risk assets will remain under pressure; if the data unexpectedly cools, Wash may have the chance to move from idealism back to reality and reopen the easing window in the fourth quarter. For $BTC, the future pricing power lies not only in the price but in the unresolved key in Wash’s hands. #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期

$ALLO dropped 32% in one day, causing the market to collapse directly. A large amount of tokens flooded into exchanges, mercilessly crashing the price. RSI plummeted from 96 to 19; just a few days ago it was running a high fever, and now it’s in the ICU. Whales are also fleeing, funds are flowing out, and panic selling is happening all at once. What’s worse, another batch of tokens will unlock on June 10, adding salt to the wound. The technicals are already wrecked, and the supply side still has a ticking time bomb. It won’t be easy to recover in the short term, so don’t rush to catch the falling knife—wait until the chips stabilize. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

"Government Equity Participation: A New Variable in AI Competition" Trump confirmed that he is negotiating with OpenAI and others for government equity participation. The plan, proposed by Altman, centers on "voluntarily transferring shares to the government," with profits distributed to the public. A critical crossroads: Anthropic has not yet participated in negotiations. While OpenAI actively engages with the White House, Anthropic remains immersed in its "security principles" of refusing military cooperation, having once rejected a $200 million contract to uphold its bottom line. This is not just a moral choice but a historic divergence in the competitive landscape. Players who first secure government endorsement will gain a first-mover advantage in regulatory pathways. Anthropic’s IPO window and policy window are opening simultaneously; avoiding negotiations is not an option. Of the $965 billion valuation premium, how much is built on the "government relations" non-technical variable? In the long term, isolating oneself from the White House may no longer be sustainable. The policy channel is becoming the new axis of AI competition. #美国政府：考虑入股大型AI企业 $ANTHROPIC $OPENAI

"SOCAMM really got hurt, HBM was mistakenly sold off — recovery shows differentiation" The market saw the words "cutback," Micron fell 8%, Hynix fell 10%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit its largest drop in six years. But SemiAnalysis founder Patel personally clarified: the clickbait went too far, most of the report was overlooked. The cutback is on the CPU side SOCAMM system memory, dropping from 55TB to 28TB. The reason is severe LPDDR5X shortage in 2026, not a decline in AI demand. SOCAMM is a slot-in design; today it’s 96GB installed, in a few days it can be swapped to 192GB or even 256GB. The GPU side HBM4 remains untouched, 288GB per GPU, about 20.7TB per full rack, capacity and bandwidth unchanged. Goldman Sachs expects HBM supply-demand tightness to continue through 2028. Morgan Stanley doubled Micron’s target price from $520 to $1050, maintaining an overweight rating. When the recovery rally comes, differentiation will inevitably appear: HBM manufacturers (Hynix, Micron) were mistakenly sold off and will rebound the most; SOCAMM manufacturers’ market shrinks, rebound weak. The real story is not AI demand peaking, but profit redistribution within the industry chain. Choose the right track before acting, don’t be misled by clickbait. #英伟达减配被误读：HBM需求未变 $NVDA $MU

"Which will ease first under triple pressure?" Oil prices, interest rate hikes, and negotiation deadlock—three negative factors simultaneously pressuring BTC. Oil prices are the most urgent. U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 2004. JPMorgan estimates that $120 oil prices will drag down U.S. GDP by about 0.4 percentage points. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could surge sharply in late June, with no short-term relief in sight. Interest rate hike expectations fluctuate. Nonfarm payrolls at 172,000 far exceeded expectations, raising the probability of a rate hike this year to nearly 68%. However, the probability of a rate hike in July is only 12%, and the chance of no change in June is 96%. Employment is strong, but inflation may not spiral upward. The rate hike narrative is more about managing expectations, with a higher threshold for implementation than the oil price shock. Negotiation deadlock is the hardest to resolve. Iran demands the unfreezing of $24 billion first, but Trump refuses to budge. The Strait blockade is both a bargaining chip and the root cause of oil price issues. Which will ease first? Interest rate hike expectations are the most likely to fluctuate—if oil prices fall back or a committee member signals dovishness, the probability of a rate hike may cool off temporarily. No turnaround is expected soon for oil prices or negotiations. For $BTC, easing interest rate hike expectations could be the first glimmer of hope. But without a drop in oil prices, a reversal is hard to talk about. Keep a close eye on developments in the Strait of Hormuz. #美伊：油库存量告急，油价$120风险升温

"Mars colonization written into KPIs, how severe are SpaceX's governance risks?" Elon Musk's compensation plan requires a market value of $7.5 trillion and the establishment of a one-million-person Mars colony. It unlocks in 15 tranches, with a maximum reward of about $583 billion. The problem is, this plan is highly likely to trigger governance disputes. Tesla's $56 billion 2018 compensation case took seven years of litigation in Delaware before the Supreme Court overturned the original ruling. SpaceX has taken precautions in advance: relocating its registration to Texas and raising the shareholder derivative lawsuit threshold to 3%. At a valuation of $1.8 trillion, shareholders need to hold $52.5 billion in shares to sue. Small shareholders can't even get through the courthouse doors. Three major public pension funds have jointly protested, calling this "the most management-friendly governance structure in the U.S. public markets." In the short term, passive allocation demand supports the stock price, but governance disputes will be a long-term suppressing factor. Whenever performance falls short of expectations, this plan will become a target for attacks. #SpaceX上市：超募2倍，马斯克封顶$1.1万亿 $SPCX

"BTC falls, HYPE rises, the institutional path has been proven" $BTC plummets, yet the HYPE ETF has seen net inflows for 15 consecutive days, totaling nearly $150 million. Grayscale's HYPG fee rate of 0.29% is the lowest in the US. Funds come from new crypto investors, not internal rotation. Low correlation is recognized by institutions. Bitwise points out the core is the buyback mechanism: 99% of fee income is used to buy back HYPE, similar to how a listed company rewards shareholders, a favorite on Wall Street. What is the next milestone? Most likely not a futures ETF. Spot just launched, the order won't be reversed. More realistically, passive index inclusion. Hyperliquid Strategies has been shortlisted for the Russell 3000; once officially included, index funds will be forced to allocate. Next is institutional penetration of staking products. Institutionalization of $HYPE is accelerating, far faster than early BTC. The buyback flywheel plus ETF inflows create synergy. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the structural trend is established. The key is whether you believe the "buyback story" can continue to run. #HYPE: ETF attracts $150 million against the trend during a major drop

"RSI at freezing point meets interest rate hikes, will technicals still work this time?" $BTC's RSI has dropped to 15.5, the lowest since March 2020. The last time RSI was around 15, BTC rebounded 30%-50%, and analysts based on this called a technical target of $70,650. But the macro backdrop is completely different this time. In 2020, there were zero interest rates and unlimited QE; now the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 63%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 4.5%. Historical patterns only hold during periods of loose liquidity. Now institutions find holding 5% government bonds more profitable, so why take the risk to buy in? 5.3 million BTC are held in long-term investors' wallets at a floating loss; these are not just numbers, but real people with real money trapped. Extreme RSI oversold conditions may bring a short-term rebound but are unlikely to mark the start of a new trend. Strategically, aggressive traders can take small positions to play the rebound with proper stop-losses; conservative traders should wait until after the FOMC decision. Technicals can be referenced but should not be blindly trusted. This time, when bottom-fishing, watch more and act less. #BTC：财库崩盘预警与超卖反弹并存

"Ironwood Upgrade: Zcash Moves from Pure Privacy to Auditability" Zcash announced the launch of the Ironwood upgrade at the end of July, with the core mechanism called "Turnstile". Simply put: old pool ZEC is forcibly migrated to the new pool, and the migration process is fully auditable across the network. The total amount of ZEC in the new pool cannot exceed the total legitimate inflow value of the old pool. This is not just a bug fix; it is a structural operation redefining Zcash’s positioning—adding a hard constraint of supply auditing to the privacy protocol. Here’s the question: a coin that built its reputation on being "invisible" is now forcing users to "be visible". Has the core selling point changed? Zcash’s narrative has shifted from "full privacy, fully invisible" to "limited privacy + mathematical auditing." This is a compromise toward market trust. Arthur Hayes was very straightforward when he liquidated: "The privacy narrative demands perfection, not just a high probability of safety." Ironwood finds a path between "high probability of safety" and "perfection"—an auditable route. Zcash is no longer a pure privacy coin but a "privacy coin with auditing." Whether this path succeeds depends on whether the market is willing to pay for "no longer pure but more trustworthy." #ZEC：漏洞未被利用，Ironwood升级落地 $ZEC